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September 30th, 2006

What’s on Tap 9/30-10/2

The fifth week of the college football season doesn’t have any must see games, but it does boast a number of crucial conference match-ups that should have the avid CFB pigskin fan pumped.

The first of which takes place at 12:30 ET when the Colorado Buffaloes invade Columbia to take on the undefeated Missouri Tigers. The Buffs put forth their best effort of the season in Athens, GA last week and almost upset the #10 ranked Bulldogs in the process. The Tigers have quietly ripped apart each and every one of their opponents on their way to their perfect 4-0 mark. The Buffs made a habit of beating Mizzou in to a bloody pulp during the Barnett era, so it’ll be interesting to see how the new regime fares. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Tigers won’t be gracious hosts. You’ll be able to see this Big 12 North battle on all FSN affiliates.

The next crucial conference match-up takes place in the MAC East where the Akron Zips pack their bags back up and hit the road once again to take on the surprising Kent State Golden Flashes. This will be QB Luke Getsy’s Zips first conference game of the season, while the Golden Flashes already stand at 2-0 in the division. A win here by Kent would give them some fantastic breathing room the rest of the way, and they would have to be considered the odds on favorite to reach the MAC Championship game if they were to hold serve at home the rest of the way. Expect another solid MAC battle to occur, so tune into FOX Sports Cincinnati to see these two slug it out.

The 3:30 ET time slot is when most of the day’s fun begins. Oregon takes on Arizona State, Georgia Tech invades Blacksburg to take on the Hokies, the Gators seek revenge in “The Swamp” over Alabama, and Texas Tech and Texas A & M will battle it out in what’s become a very fierce rivalry over the years. You can catch the SEC battle on CBS, while all the other big games will be broadcasted on ABC.

Lincoln, Nebraska will be in a frenzied state come 7:00 ET as their Huskers take on the Kansas Jayhawks in what’s certain to be a bloodbath. The Jayhawks snapped a 36-year losing streak to Nebraska last year in Lawrence, and dished out a woodshed beating in the process. Tune into Fox Sport Net to see if HC Bill Callahan decides to return the favor.

A couple of Big 10 powerhouses take the field at 8:00 ET as the Michigan Wolverines visit the Twin Cities to take on the Minnesota Gophers, and the #1 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes invade Kinnick Stadium to lock horns with the 13th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. One game looks to be a blowout, while the other should be very competitive. Can you guess which is which? Be sure to tune into ABC and ESPN to find out!!!

Week 4 in the NFL has a couple of decent games, but the rotation for the most part doesn’t really get my blood pumping. Many will be interested to see if the Ravens are for real, and to see how QB Phillip Rivers handles his first true road test as a pro. The TO saga really turned the Dallas camp upside down this week, so it will be interesting to see how they perform at Tennessee. Are the Saints for real, or was their fantastic exhibition on Monday Night just a smoke screen? Tune in at 1:00 ET to find out as they take on a desperate Carolina squad. Mike Martz returns to St. Louis now as the Lions offensive coordinator. Yeah, Not interested!!!

The afternoon slate does peak my interest a bit with New England and Cincy squaring off as well as Jacksonville and the Redskins. Cincy picked up an enormous win at Pittsburgh last week, and might come out a bit flat. NE was embarrassed on Sunday Night in front of the entire world, and should come out with their hair on fire. Jacksonville not only lost to Indy once gain, but they cried about it after saying the Colts were cheating and threw too many cheap shots. Are they really ready to go into Washington and take on a skins club that finally found its offense last week? Tune in at 4:14 ET on CBS or FOX to get answers to all these questions.
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September 30th, 2006

Seahawks Visit Bears on Sunday Night

Two unbeaten teams will take to the field in this week’s Sunday night matchup, as the 3-0 Seattle Seahawks travel to Soldier Field in Chicago to do battle with the 3-0 Bears (with kickoff, as always, at 8:15pm ET). However, the Seahawks will be missing a key player in this game, as RB Shaun Alexander will be on the sidelines with a cracked foot.

Alexander was officially listed as ‘doubtful’ on Wednesday’s initial injury report, but he was then downgraded to ‘out’ on Thursday’s followup release. The star RB had said earlier in the week that he would suit up against the Bears (thanks in part to the power of prayer), but apparently the Seahawks’ medical staff had other ideas about his status.

And that makes Maurice Morris Seattle’s new starting running back. Morris has played sparingly so far in 2006, and obviously won’t attract Alexander-level attention from the Bears’ defense on Sunday. Last week, Morris ran for 18 yards on 15 carries in the team’s win over the New York Giants (Alexander picked up just 47 yards on 20 carries).

But when your quarterback throws five touchdown passes in a game, rushing numbers don’t really mean too much. Matt Hasselbeck connected with receivers five times in the end zone against the Giants last week, despite only going 24-of-33 for 227 yards, and getting picked off three times as well. Seattle actually led that game 42-3 at one point, before the Giants finally woke up in the third quarter and tossed 27 points on the board.

So the Bears will be mainly focused on stopping Hasselbeck on Sunday night. Against the Vikings last week Chicago’s defense allowed just three field goals and a defensive touchdown (a seven-yard INT return by Antoine Winfield), but it still took a late TD pass by Rex Grossman to give them a 19-16 victory and keep them undefeated on the year.

Prior to their game against the Vikings, the Bears had only given up seven points over two contests, and they’ve allowed half as many points as the Seahawks so far this season (23 compared to 46). As well, surprisingly, they’ve outscored Seattle 79-72 so far in ‘06 against similar competition (Packers, Lions, Vikings vs. Lions, Cards, Giants).

Throw in home-field advantage, and the oddsmakers currently have the Bears listed as 3.5-point favorites in this contest (with a total sitting at 34.5 points). The last time these teams met? That was back in 2003, when the Bears lost 24-17 to the Seahawks in Seattle. Chicago covered the 11-point spread, and the total ended up an UNDER play.

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September 30th, 2006

CHICAGO (-3) VS. SEATTLE 8:15 ET October 1st

Once again, this line is laughable folks. The Bears just don’t get any respect from the oddsmakers. They destroyed their first two opponents at home this year by a combined 60-7. Seattle is a decent squad, but it’s the same squad that struggled to beat the Lions in Detroit. Chicago pounded them by a 34-7 count here. It’s been very rare for the Bears to get a primetime gig of late, and the city of Chicago will be out in full force this Sunday night. Just like they were last year when they knocked off the Falcons by a 16-3 count as 3-point home chalks. Both clubs come into this Sunday night affair undefeated, and both are favorites to represent the NFC in the Big game later this year. Seattle took care of business against a Giant squad that picked up a miraculous divisional victory the prior week, and simply had nothing left in the tank once they got down so quickly. Chicago fought tooth and nail against the hated Minnesota Vikings in “The Rollerdome” last week, and came away with a huge win that now has them a perfect 3-0 within the North Division. Both clubs have exceptional defenses, solid QB play, and electric special teams. However, the Seahawks are in foreign territory, have to battle the cold, and are going up against some of the nastiest players in the entire league. On top of that, they’re without they’re overrated RB (Alexander) and will have to rely on back-up RB Morris to keep Chicago’s defense honest so they don’t knock QB Hasselbeck out of the game. Sit back, relax, and enjoy some solid Sunday Night Football; Chicago Style!!!
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September 30th, 2006

WASHINGTON (+3) VS. JACKSONVILLE 4:15 ET October 1st

The Jags followed up their dominating win over the Steelers last Monday night with an absolute did at Indianapolis. It looked as if they almost took the Colts team for granted early, and then couldn’t do anything about it once they were down. They lost the game both SU and ATS, and then lost a few moxie points in my book after the game by crying about how the Colts continued to cheat and took cheap shots at them. I never would have figured the Jags to be a bunch of crybabies being led by hard-nosed HC Del Rio, but they nonetheless are and have to look at themselves in the mirror before this game. Washington finally found its offensive stroke last week, and QB Brunell had a record setting day that saw him complete his first 22 passes of the game. The offense had a much better flow to it, and that’s highly attributable to a healthy RB Portis in their backfield. This line looks to be severely out of whack. The Skins did a tremendous job of protecting their house a year ago (6-2 SU), and they’ve already dropped their season opener. I don’t foresee them losing their first two of the season, so I’m more than happy to grab the cushion but a play on the $$$-Line is in order as well.

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September 30th, 2006

NEW ORLEANS (+7) VS. CAROLINA 1:00 ET October 1st

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from this Saints club in their first three games, and have been very unimpressed with what Carolina has done to date. Even in last week’s game, the Panthers couldn’t avoid the mistakes that cost them dearly in their first two games. I know they won, but HC Fox and his staff have to be alarmed by the fact that they weren’t able to put the game away after holding a commanding 17-0 lead at one point. The Saints put forth one of the greatest human interest stories of the year last Monday night when they returned back home to the Superdome and dished out a severe spanking to the visiting Atlanta Falcons. That night was most definitely theirs, and the line in this game predicts they’ll crash back down to earth. I’m not buying it. The visitor boasts a perfect 9-0 ATS mark in this series, and the Saints are a solid 16-3 ATS as divisional road dawgs. Take a flyer on the Saints who went into Carolina last year and beat them SU in their own backyard. New Orleans has played solid on both sides of the ball. They’re not killing themselves with turnovers, and they’re doing all the small things necessary to win. This line is much to rich for my taste, and I have no problem going back to the well that treated me so kindly last Monday Night.

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September 29th, 2006

Formula 1 - Chinese Grand Prix

The Formula 1 season motors into China this weekend with only three races remaining before the drivers champion will be crowned.

The championship is a race between two drivers for the title with Fernando Alonso holding a razor-thin two-point lead over Michael Schumacher. Out of the 15 races run already this season, either Alonso or Schumacher has won 12 of them. Alonso and Schumacher are the drivers that still have a shot at the championship with the closest follower being Felipe Massa, who is a distant 46 points back of Alonso.

Schumacher closed the gap to two points in Italy earlier this month with a win in the Italian Grand Prix, his sixth win of the season. Alonso was forced to retire with engine trouble and did not finish the race. Alonso has not won since crossing the finish line first in the Canadian Grand Prix back in June. Schumacher has gone on to win four races during that span.

The Chinese Grand Prix is still a relatively new race on the Formula 1 schedule, with the first race ever run at the Shanghai International Circuit back in 2004. Last season the race was won by Alonso, with Giancarlo Fisichella and Kimi Raikkonen also finishing on the podium. Rubens Barrichella won the inaugural race back in 2004, with Jenson Button and Raikkonen also grabbing the podium.

If those two races have any bearing on this weekend’s race, then Alonso appears to have the advantage over Schumacher despite his recent troubles. The Spaniard won the race last season and just missed the podium by finishing fourth in 2004. Schumacher’s best finish at Shanghai was a sixth-place finish in 2004. He finished well back of the field in 12th place last year.

Like the drivers standings, the odds for the race begin and end with Schumacher and Alonso. Having outraced Alonso for the past three months, Schumacher is the favorite in China at -175. Alonso comes in at +330. The only other drivers to receive odds lower than +1000 were Raikkonen at +650 and Schumacher’s Ferrari teammate Felipe Massa at +750.

A win by Schumacher on Sunday would guarantee the former World Champion at least a tie with Alonso for first place in the drivers standings. That would only happen though, if Schumacher finished first and Alonso placed second, which has happened three times already this season.

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September 29th, 2006

No. 1 Buckeyes visit unbeaten Hawkeyes

Kinnick Stadium will be jumping on Saturday night when the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes come to town. The Iowa Hawkeyes faithful have been anticipating this game all season and neither team has disappointed with both heading into the game with 4-0 records.

The Buckeyes began the season at No. 1 and so far have done nothing to show they don’t deserve the top spot. Troy Smith has backed up the Heisman talk by completing 66 percent of his passes for 884 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. With a pair of receivers like Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez you would think Smith would have an open man, if not two, every time he drops back to pass.

Iowa quarterback Drew Tate may not have the hype surrounding him that Smith has, but he’s quietly put up some pretty good numbers early in the season. Tate has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 687 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions so far. Tate has spread the ball around with the bulk of his passes finding either running back Albert Young or wideouts Dominique Douglas and Scott Chandler.

Both teams may be sporting perfect records, but a quick glance at each team’s schedule shows that the Buckeyes have had a much tougher road to 4-0. Ohio State has already had to play two ranked schools in Texas and Penn State. Iowa on the other hand will be facing a ranked opponent for the first time this Saturday and started out the season with a walk in the park versus I-AA Montana.

Despite their tougher schedule Ohio State had been a bettors dream so far this season, while Iowa has been more of a nightmare. The Buckeyes are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and thanks to their defense, which has allowed only eight points per game, they’re also 0-4 over/under. Iowa, with their easier schedule, has not been kind to bettors with a 0-3 mark ATS. The Hawkeyes have held their opponents to 11 points per game this season and are 0-3 over/under.

One thing that does favor Iowa is the recent history between these two teams. The last three contests between these three schools have all gone to the home team. Ohio State torched Iowa 31-6 as a nine-point favorite last season thanks to a pair of touchdowns passes and two touchdown runs from Smith. A year earlier with Smith backing up Buckeyes’ QB Justin Zwick, the Hawkeyes ripped the Buckeyes 33-7 as a 1.5-point favorite. Smith did come on late in that game to thrown Ohio State’s lone touchdown.

In this season’s rematch the Buckeyes are a 6.5-point road favorite, while the total was set at 43. The game kicks off at 8 pm EDT on Saturday night on ABC.

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September 28th, 2006

Auburn vs. South Carolina

Are the South Carolina Gamecocks due for a letdown?

The loyal fans in Columbia must be feeling a little edgy these days. Coach Steve Spurrier has led the Fighting Gamecocks to a 3-1 record this year (2-1 against the spread), but those three wins came against overmatched opposition. The loss was an 18-0 kick in the teeth delivered by the Georgia Bulldogs, and things might be even uglier when So. Carolina meets the No. 3 Auburn Tigers Thursday night at Williams-Brice Stadium. The Tigers are 14-point favorites with a total of 37.5.

The Gamecocks have the unenviable task of trying to stop Auburn running back Kenny Irons. This will be a homecoming of sorts for Irons; he transferred from So. Carolina in 2004 and made a name for himself last year by rushing for 1,293 yards, the highest total for any tailback in the SEC. That performance included a pair of touchdowns against the Gamecocks in last year’s 48-7 shellacking - Auburn was favored at home by 15.5 points in that affair.

Irons was held out at last week’s relatively meaningless 38-7 win over Buffalo with a sprained ankle, although that injury isn’t considered serious. The rest should give Irons that extra bounce in his step to slash through So. Carolina’s highly-suspect run defense. The Gamecocks gave up an embarrassing 290 yards on the ground two weeks ago to Div-1-AA Wofford in a surprisingly close 27-20 So. Carolina win. There was no line on the game, thankfully for Gamecocks’ supporters.

As excellent as the Auburn run attack is, coach Tommy Tuberville has told reporters that the passing game could use a little prep work as the Tigers prepare for the meat of the SEC schedule. “We’ve got a stretch with three very good conference games,” Tuberville said, “and that’s going to force us to throw the ball more.” This could be excellent news for OVER backers. Although Auburn has jumped out to big leads in racking up a 4-0 record (3-1 ATS), the UNDER has gone 3-1 as the Tigers have chewed up the clock running the ball in the second half.

Kick-off is at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time with ESPN providing national coverage on cable.

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September 28th, 2006

Kenseth favored in Kansas

He may be in third place in the NASCAR Nextel Cup drivers’ standings, but he’s No. 1 with a bullet on the odds list.

Matt Kenseth is the +700 favorite to win this Sunday’s Banquet 400 at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City - the one in the Sunflower State, that is. Handicappers have short memories, and it was just last month that Kenseth won back-to-back races on the way to taking first place in the standings leading into the Chase for the Cup. He’s now just 18 points back of current leader Jeff Burton.

Kenseth has recent history on his side at Kansas. He finished fifth last year at this 1.5-mile tri-oval, having started from the pole. And if he hadn’t run out of gas on the last lap of last week’s MBNA NASCAR RacePoints 400 at Dover International Speedway, Kenseth would probably be on top of the standings right now. He managed a 10th-place finish instead to stay within close range of Burton.

The man in second place has even more reason to look forward to Kansas. Jeff Gordon is second on the odds list, ties with Kasey Kahne at +800, and his track record at Kansas is stellar: two victories and an average result of sixth since the inaugural race in 2001. You can call it a comeback if you want; Gordon is a four-time Cup winner and is just six points behind Burton after missing last year’s Chase.

But the buzz on the Cup circuit is still with the folks at Richard Childress Racing. The last three races have fallen into the RCR camp - Burton took the checkered flag last week at Dover, while Kevin Harvick won the two previous events. RCR is still under scrutiny after the SPEED Network report that suggested the team used modified tire rims that fell under a gray area of NASCAR’s rules.

If RCR is still operating with something of an advantage, then Harvick (+900) and Burton (+1400) have to be considered worth a look for Kansas. However, between the two, only Harvick has managed a Top-10 result on this track, and that happened just once in 2003, when he finished sixth.

The action gets underway Sunday at 2:10 p.m. Eastern under expected sunny skies.
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September 28th, 2006

MILWAUKEE/ST LOUIS OVER 9 -120 (DAVIS/MARQUIS) 8:10 ET

We nailed the ‘Under’ in last nights pitchers duel between Young and Reyes, but I’m going the other way tonight in what’s certain to be a slugfest. Both Davis’ and Marquis’ home/road splits are garbage, and both should get shelled tonight. The Redbirds picked up a huge win last night to hold onto their 1.5 game lead in the division, and I’m expecting them to feed off the momentum from that win and get their bats going. Doug Davis’ ERA raises a full point on the road to 6.04 from 5.02, and Jason Marquis’ ERA is just awful in every situation he pitches (day, night, home, away). Both these pitchers might not last long, and it will allow both clubs to hack away at each other’s horrific bullpens. Over she goes as the Brew Crew and Redbirds play their fourth to last game against each other in 2006.

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