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September 15th, 2006

Cowboys and Redskins Renew Rivalry

Both the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys lost their season-opening contests last week. Barring a rare tie, one of those teams will grab their first victory of the year this week when they battle in the Sunday night contest (8:15pm E.T.) at Texas Stadium.

The Redskins were blanked in the fourth quarter last week as they fell by a score of 19-16 to the visiting Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. Washington QB Mark Brunell couldn’t get much going on offense, completing 17-of-28 pass attempts for 163 yards in the air, with no TD strikes and no interceptions. Clinton Portis, nursing a shoulder injury, scored the team’s lone touchdown, but only picked up 39 rushing yards.

The Cowboys got a touchdown out of Terrell Owens in their Week 1 contest, but that fourth-quarter score proved to be meaningless in a 24-17 road loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Dallas quarterback Drew Bledsoe had a terrible game against the Jags, going 16-of-33 for 246 yards passing, with the one TD strike and three interceptions. Owens had six catches for 80 yards in the loss, and Terry Glenn caught four balls for 81 yards.

So both the Redskins and the Cowboys are currently 0-1 straight-up, and 0-1 against-the-spread as well. For Week 2 the oddsmakers have Dallas pegged as a 6-point home favorite, with the total hovering around 37 points. Washington won both meetings between these teams last year (35-7 at home in December, and 14-13 on the road in September), and covered both times. One game was an OVER play, the other an UNDER play, and it was the first season series sweep for Washington since 1995. The Redskins, though, have not won two straight contests in Dallas since the late eighties.

On the injury front, the Redskins have more issues than the Cowboys. Portis is still on the injury report as questionable with his shoulder troubles for Week 2, although he’s expected to get an increased workload this week. CB Shawn Springs, who is coming off abdominal surgery, is listed as doubtful versus the Cowboys, while S Pierson Prioleau was placed on IR with a torn ACL, and is out for the season. That could spell trouble for the Redskins’ secondary, which will be asked to contain Owens in Dallas this weekend.

For the Cowboys, kicker Mike Vanderjagt was not included on the team’s initial injury report this week, so he’s expected to be available on Sunday night; whether or not Bill Parcells plays the flaky Vanderjagt remains to be seen. And Bledsoe isn’t hurt, but another poor outing could find the veteran QB getting benched in favor of Tony Romo.
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September 15th, 2006

All Eyes on Michigan-Notre Dame

They’ve been doing this off and on since 1887, so you’d think they’d know what they’re doing by now.

The No. 13 Michigan Wolverines are heading to South Bend this Saturday to play the No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the 34th installment of their ancient rivalry. The Wolverines have an 18-14-1 straight-up advantage, but the Irish have won three of the last four, they’re 6-1 ATS in the past decade, and this week they’re 5-point home faves (-225 on the moneyline) with a total of 50.

This should be much more of a toss-up than the lines indicate. Notre Dame, for all the improvements the program has made under Charlie Weis, is still vulnerable to a solid running attack. The Irish coughed up a total of 277 yards on the ground in their first two games, and that was against the fair-to-middling backfields of Georgia Tech and Penn State. Michigan’s Mike Hart is one of the very best running backs in the nation. The Wolverines have an opportunity to grind this one out on the ground and keep the Irish offense on the sidelines.

When Notre Dame does get the ball, the offensive line has to prove it can protect Brady Quinn far better than it did against the Yellow Jackets in Week 1. Running back Darius Walker saved the Irish bacon in that narrow 14-10 victory with 99 yards rushing and the winning TD. It was all systems go for the offense against a questionable Penn State squad in last week’s 41-17 thrashing of the Nittany Lions; however, Michigan’s defense is top-shelf in all aspects, from versatile DE LaMarr Woodley to Thorpe Award candidate Leon Hall on the corner. Quinn vaults right back to the top of the Heisman Trophy list if he can beat this defense.

The Irish are the archetypical public team and are prone to being overvalued in nearly every circumstance. But they also have a very good chance of beating Michigan. The Wolverines have yet to find their passing rhythm, and Notre Dame’s 1-2 safety punch of would-be boxer Tom Zbikowski and Chinedum Ndukwe is downright scary. That might be enough to render Michigan a one-dimensional team on Saturday - still, that’s the Hart Dimension. Enter at your peril.

Kick-off is at 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on NBC.

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September 15th, 2006

DALLAS (-6) VS. WASHINGTON 8:15 ET NBC (Sept. 17)

Raise your hands if you were one of the many that turned the Cowboys from a 2-point dog into a road chalk last week. Well, I was one of them, though I got a much favorable number, and sat in disgust after they blew a 10-point first quarter lead en route to the 24-17 loss. Watching QB Bledsoe simply implode in the second half wasn’t fun at all, but I simply can’t go against them in this spot tonight. Washington just doesn’t look right at all. They’re having trouble running their new offense, and I’m not sure QB Brunell has the skills necessary to run it effectively. The starters weren’t able to notch a single point in the pre-season, and they only put forth 16-points in their own backyard. Hostile surroundings are the last thing this offense needs to deal with. The defense gave up way too many third down conversions a week ago that allowed the Vikings to dominate the TOP, and they just weren’t able to muster enough pressure on QB Johnson to force any turnovers. Now, throw in the fact that Dallas lost both meetings to Gibbs and his Skins a year ago, and you’ve got a fantastic recipe for a home win and cover for the Boys this evening. HC Bill Parcells was none to pleased with what occurred last week, so you can bet your bottom dollar that he’ll have his team’s attention for what he wants in this game. He also won’t allow them to step off the gas if and when they build a comfortable lead after what occurred in their Monday Night affair last season. The Cowboys owned the Redskins winning 7 of the previous 8 meetings up until last season, and I look for them to put forth a dominating effort with only their “Bye” to look forward to next week.

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September 15th, 2006

MINNESOTA -105 VS. CAROLINA 1:00 ET (Sept. 17)

Carolina certainly looks to be the best the NFC South has to offer, but they’re not playing with a full deck right now. They’ve shown a knack for starting off slow in the John Fox era, and I see 2006 as being no different. Look for them to drop to 0-2 today, as the extra motivated Vikes and their home crowd will be too much for the Panthers to overcome. I just simply can’t think that last week’s effort at home vs. Atlanta was an abnormality for this Panthers squad. They looked awful in just about every aspect of the game. The absence of WR Steve Smith reared its ugly head as the Panthers were only able to accumulate a total of 215 yards and 15 first downs, while scratching a whopping six points on the scoreboard. The same can’t, and won’t, be said about the Vikings performance vs. the Redskins. Granted, they won the game on a missed FG with seconds to go, but I came away impressed with the way they performed. QB Brad Johnson was cool as a cucumber under duress, and HC Brad Childress showed he had no problem running the ball as evidenced by the 30+ carries RB Chester Taylor had. They converted what seemed to be every one of their third down conversions, and their defense played with a much different swagger. They’re real tough up front defensively, and I foresee the Panthers ground game suffering because of it. Carolina will also be without the services of MLB Dan Morgan once again, so look for the Vikings offense to make a conscious effort to run up the middle, and attack the flats that should be open more times than not.

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September 15th, 2006

GREEN BAY (+2′) VS. NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET (Sept. 17)

I never thought I’d live to see the day the Packers were installed as home underdogs in back to back weeks. Sure, they indeed deserved to be the home pups with the Bears coming to town in Week 1, but now against the new look Saints??? Reggie Bush is a fabulous athlete, and Drew Brees is the best QB the folks down in the bayou have had for quite some time, but I just don’t buy them being the favorite in this spot. If for nothing else than the fact that I don’t believe they can win a pair of road games in succession. Especially with their long awaited home opener in the Superdome next Monday night. As bad as the final score looked in the Packers/Bears game, the frozen tundra boys didn’t play as badly as you think. For one, RB Ahman Green rushed for over 100-yards, and QB Favre’s INT’s only came late once the game was decided. He was just forcing the issue trying to get something going so he wasn’t shutout for the first time in his career. The Saints defense would never be confused with that of Chicago’s, and I’m looking for QB Favre and the boys to bounce back with a very solid effort. Expect RB Green to have another monster day against the Saints defense, with a number of Green Bay records in clear sight. I think the oddsmakers got this one right the first time when they installed the Packers as 3.5 home favorites. However, JQP’s enamored with the new look Saints and completely bet the line around in this one. I’ll take the extra points at home even though we don’t need them. Packers crash the Saints back down to earth, and win their first of the season!!!

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September 15th, 2006

DETROIT (+9) VS. CHICAGO 1:00 ET (Sept. 17)

Detroit really gave the defending NFC champs a major run for their money last week. Their underachieving squads have always given Chicago trouble in the past, and I see no reason why the new and improved version of the Lions won’t do the same this afternoon. Now, I know full well just how ferocious the Bears defense is up front, and that I have no chance of cashing this ticket if Detroit isn’t able to get its ground game going. I also know that WR Roy Williams spat out some bulleting board material this week guaranteeing victory. That being said, I still give them an excellent shot of giving the overconfident Bears (Lambeau beating) a major run for their money. My god!!! I can’t remember the last time the Bears were this big of chalks!!! Am I to believe that their 26-0 whitewashing of the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau makes them worthy enough to be laying this type of wood to a divisional rival coming off a heartbreaking home loss in Week 1. I think not!!! We were all over Da Bears in Week 1, and watching them dismantle the Packers every way imaginable was definitely a sight these sore eyes haven’t seen in quite some time. That being said, the score could have been even worse if not for them coming up short and having to settle for FG’s a number of times in Packer territory. The Bears offense is improving, but it’s not quite there yet. Having to settle for FG’s rather than TDs will allow the Lions to hang within this number the entire game, and possibly slam through the backdoor late. The Lions are 3-2 ATS and their L/5 trips to the Windy City, and are a solid 8-2 ATS the L/10 times they’ve been installed as road dawgs of 3.5-10 points.

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