December 29, 2007
8:00 PM ET

The Big Ten has struggled as Bowl favorites in recent years, and the Penn State Nittany Lions will put that trend to the test when they face the Texas A&M Aggies in the Aggies’ home state at the Alamo Bowl.

Not only will the Aggies have most of the crowd support, but they have also discovered their offense late in the season. They saved the best for last, as they rolled up a whopping 533 yards of offense in their 38-30 upset of Texas. They showed some nice balance against the Longhorns, as the running of sophomore Mike Goodson opened up the airways for quarterback Stephen McGee via play action passes. If that game was not a mirage, I feel that the Aggies will be a tough team for Penn State to defend here.

Yes, the Nittany Lions only allowed 17.6 points per game, ranking them eight in the nation in scoring defense, but they are not accustomed to facing teams with the speed that A&M possesses. It is no secret that the Big Ten is full of plodding teams, and PSU played a very soft non-conference slate.

All things considered, I give the Aggies an excellent chance to win the game on the field, and do not forget that Big Ten favorites are just 2-14 against the spread in bowls since 2000!

This Saturday the bet is on Texas A&M +6 !!

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December 28, 2007
8:30 PM ET

The Oregon State Beavers (8-4, 6-3 Pacific-10 Conference) and the Maryland Terrapins (6-6, 3-5 Atlantic Coast Conference) will meet for the first time ever when they do battle in the 2007 Emerald Bowl. Oregon State enters into this game on a roll, winning 6 of their last 7 games with the only loss coming to conference power house USC with their star RB Yvenson Bernard (1037 Yds, 12 TDs) out due to injury. Maryland are not an easy team either, and have wins against top programs like Boston College and Rutgers this season. These are two pretty good teams, but Im a fan of the Beavers HC Mike Riley , who have never lost a Bowl game with a 6-0 record, as the top guy in with his current team and as the offensive cooridnator with the USC Trojans. Oregon State is ranked 12th in the NCAA in total defense, allowing 313 yards per game , while ranking first in the nation against the run, allowing just 2.1 YPC. The Terps are 9-21 ATS L/30 away from home, against rush Ds, that allow 120 yard per game or less.

This Friday Night the bet is on the Oregon State Beavers -4.5!!

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December 20, 2007
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
9:00 PM ET

The 2007-2008 College Bowls kicks off this Thursday night in San Diego when the Navy Midshipmen and Utah Utes square off in the Poinsettia Bowl.

The Midshipmen are coming off another fantastic season that saw them win eight games under the watchful eye of Head Coach Paul Johnson and his staff for the fourth time in six years. Last we saw the Middies, they beat Army for the 6th straight season, which allowed them to capture the Commander in Chief Trophy for the fifth straight season. However, they’ll take the field without HC Johnson for the first time in six years since he accepted the Head Coaching job at Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago. The task of bouncing back from losing the Meineke Car Care Bowl to Boston College last season is now in the hands of Johnson ‘s longtime assistant Ken Niumatalolo.

As for the Utes, they got off to a very slow start this season only winning one of their first four games, but they scratched together eight straight wins before the “Holy War” with BYU in their final game of the season. They had the Cougars on the ropes, but allowed a game winning TD drive in the final 30 seconds and suffered their first loss since September in the process.

Utah opened up as 10-point favorites in this spot with the ‘Total’ set at 67.5. Navy money has lowered that spread to 8 and the ‘Total’ has been bet down to 65.

I’m expecting the final score of this game to come in on the low side of this ‘Total’. Utah by no means wants to take part in a shoot-out with this Navy club. If it happens, they have a much better chance of losing this game outright. Instead, the Utes will look to pound the ball offensively with RB Mack and take what it can get from their passing game when the Middies adjust for the run. They’ve only allowed opponents to rush for 91 yards per game in their last 3 contests. Navy’s offense will certainly start to press if the Utes force them to pass the ball (Navy offense ranked dead last in the country passing the ball). Look for P Louis Sakoda to play a major role in this game.

This Thursday Night the bet is on the Navy Midshipmen and Utah Utes UNDER 65.5…

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December 16, 2007
Dolphin Stadium, Miami, FL
1:00 PM ET

The (4-9) Baltimore Ravens  and the (0-13) Miami Dolphins enter this South Florida contest both witha a desperate need of wins. Both these teams have had problems scoring this season. The Ravens are averaging just 17.4 points per game, and a lowly 12.8 points on the road. The Dolphins have averaged just 16.4 points per game on the season, and 17.6 points for home games. Miami has gone under in 11 of their last 12 home games against AFC North Division foes , with the average combined score of those tilts summing up an average of 26.6 points per game. Look for a hard fought low scoring affair this Sunday afternoon at Dolphin Stadium. 

This Sunday Afternoon the bet is on the Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins UNDER 37.5…

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It’s Monday again, and since we had a good game last week between New England and Baltimore, it’s safe to say this will be of the snoozer variety like so many have this season on Monday night. The NFC South battle finds the (5-7) New Orleans Saints taking on the (3-9) Atlanta Falcons in a match-up that looked much better on paper before the season actually started.

New Orleans has been a major disappointment this season. It all started back on September 6th when they opened up their 2007-08 season at Indianapolis with a deflating loss at the hands of the defending champs. They then went on to lose their next three games before picking up their first win of the season at Seattle in mid October. They rattled off three more wins after that, but then inexplicably dropped back-to-back games to St. Louis and Houston. The Saints found themselves with an excellent opportunity to get back into the NFC South race last week when they hosted the division leading Tampa bay Buccaneers. The Saints held a one-point lead at the half, but then got outscored by five in the second half en route to the 27-23 home loss. RB Reggie Bush suffered ligament damage in his knee that could keep him out for the rest of the season.

As for Atlanta, this season started off on the wrong foot when former QB Michael Vick got nailed in a dog fighting scandal. This immediately put new HC Bobby Petrino’s offense behind the proverbial 8-ball, and the team has suffered on a weekly basis. The Falcons come into this game losers of three in a row, and six of their last eight overall. Inconsistency at the QB position has seen their offense only muster 14 PPG, and that number has dropped to 12 PPG over the L/3 weeks.

I’m expecting this to be a low scoring game much like these clubs first match-up of the year when the Saints won by a 22-16 final count in New Orleans. The ‘Under’ is 6-2 ATS the L/8 meetings, while the ‘Under’ has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS the L/4 times the Falcons were installed as underdogs between 3.5-10 points. It’s also cashed 8 of the L/10 times the Falcons played within their division. As for the Saints, the ‘Under’ is 3-2 ATS off a SU loss this season, but a solid 10-3 ATS after allowing their opponent to rip them apart through the air (250+) the week before.

With QB Chris Redman leading the Falcons attack and the Saints without another key cog on offense (RB Bush), I expect to see a lot more FG’s than TDs in this spot, so hit the lowside of the ‘Total’ for another Monday Night Football winner!!!

For Monday Night Football the bet is on New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons u 43.5 !!

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December 3, 2007
T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, MD 8:30 PM ET

The Patriots storm Baltimore a perfect 11-0 and look to take out last years AFC South champs in style for the entire country to see in what looks to be another Monday Night dud. Baltimore has had a very disappointing season to date, but there’s no doubt M&T Bank stadium will be rocking for this affair.

New England had themselves a scare last Sunday night at home vs. Philadelphia, but they escaped with the 31-28 victory to keep their hopes alive of being just the second NFL team ever to have a perfect season. What this team has done so far this season is simply astounding. What’s even more amazing is the fact that they’ve been able to get it done with everyone rooting against them except for their die-hard fans. “Spygate” really pissed this organization off, and it looks as if they’re taking it out on the rest of the league.

As for Baltimore, 2006 seems like it was 10 years ago with the way this season has transpired. They haven’t won a game since the middle of October, and they’re coming off a humiliating defeat at San Diego that saw the Chargers roll them by a 32-14 final count. The offense has always been an issue under HC Brian Billick, but now the defense has taken a turn for the worse. They’ve allowed 30+ PPG the L/2 weeks, and that does not bode well this week with the offensive dynamo that is the New England Patriots paying them a visit.

Last week saw the Pats close as 24-point home favorites against Philadelphia. It was the largest pointspread I had ever seen in the professional ranks. Now, they’re a 20-point favorite on the road…. MADNESS!!! The Pats have displayed pointspread prowess this season no matter the number. They come into this game 9-2 ATS with their average number to cover ringing in at a lofty 12 PPG. As good as NE has been, Baltimore has been that bad against the number. They’ve only managed one cover all season long and it looks as if that streak will be extended by one after tonight. Baltimore will look the part early on defensively with Ray Lewis dancing around in the pre-game festivities, but when push comes to shove Brady and the Pats offense will be able to carve their defense up en route to another road win and cover. Baltimore’s self confidence is hanging by a thread right now, and it will unravel as soon as they find themselves down a couple of TDs in the first quarter. Lay the points with confidence as the Pats pick up their 12th win and 10th cover of the season…..

For Monday Night Football the bet is on The New England Patriots -20 !!

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