Thursday Feb 14, 2008
10:00 PM EST
 

The Idaho Vandals may be just 5-17 straight up, but all five of those wins have come at home and they may have a surprise in store for the Fresno State Bulldogs tonight.

Fresno State had a losing 11-13 record as well, and they are just 2-9 SU on the road, making them a poor investment as road favorites. Fresno’s only two road wins have come against Division II Winston-Salem and against a Louisiana Tech team that is one of the very worst clubs in Division IA. Yes, the Billdogs squeaked out a 72-70 win here in Idaho last season, but they failed to cover that contest as road favorites, the exact same role they are in here.

Now the Vandals have lost four straight games, but three of those were on the road where they are 0-12 SU this year. They have been far more competitive at home, where they are actually outscoring their Division IA opponents by a scant +0.3 points per game. By comparison, Fresno State is being outscored by an average of -5.7 points per game on the road.

Idaho is now 3-1 against the spread in the last four head-to-head meetings including 2-0 at home, I expect the Vandals to build on that this evening.

Bet on Idaho +4…

Tue Jan 22 ‘08 7:00p

The Toledo Rockets have been a bad road team in recent years, but the Eastern Michigan Eagles are weak favorites, and this is a rare road site where Toledo has actually had some success.

The Rockets may be just 5-11 straight up including 0-10 on the road, but they are a more respectable 7-7 against the spread overall and 4-5 ATS on the road. More importantly, Toledo has a six-game winning streak in the head-to-head series with EMU, with two of those wins coming in this building. The Rockets won rather handily 66-56 here last season.

Eastern Michigan is just 6-10 overall including 3-3 at home, making them vulnerable giving this many points. They are outscoring their home opponents by a scant +1.5 points per game, not nearly enough to cover this spot, and they have been very erratic offensively while shooting just 41.4 percent from the field.

The bottom line here is as bad as Toledo has been on the road, we simply do not trust Eastern Michigan as a favorite and we would not be shocked if the Rockets post there first road win of the year tonight.

Bet on Toledo+5.5…

The line set for this game has set off alarms in my head all week, and now it time for me to tell you why. The PAC 10 has proven throughout this tournament that they might just be the best conference in all of college hoops. With UCLA advancing to the Elite 8, both Oregon and USC have a shot to pull off the trifecta tonight that would simply stun the rest of the CBB world. With that being said, why are the Ducks only 3-point favorites to the Runnin’ Rebs of UNLV? They played in a much tougher conference. They’ve played a much tougher schedule. Why only three-points? I’ll tell you why, it’s because HC Kruger has got one heck of a team. Their win over Wiscy was by no means a fluke. These kids can ball, and I’m more comfortable backing them in this spot against a Ducks squad that’s had a pretty easy road up until this point. Their struggles in their first round match-up with Miami (OH) certainly leads me to believe that UNLV is more than capable of advancing here. Look for them to slow it down as well, and keep this more of a half court game. They got the big bodies down low to do damage against Oregon’s interior, and they can play defense with the best of them. Look for this to be a defensive minded slugfest. UNLV wants to keep this game in the 60’s, and if that occurs, they’re runnin right into the Elite 8.

Bet on UNLV +3.0…

This Hoyas club has quietly put together a sensational season, and I don’t foresee it ending anytime soon. Their round 1 dismantling of Belmont was certainly a sight to see. Especially since they got off to such a slow start and still won by 25. The final score in their Round 2 match-up looks closer than what really happened on the floor, but I’ll just chalk that up to BC’s familiarity with the Hoyas after battling against them in the Big East for so many years before moving to the ACC. Vanderbilt is coming off a mighty impressive OT win over Washington State in which the Commodores studs had huge games. Byars and Foster combined for 47 of their 78 points hat game, but I foresee it being much tougher for them in this game. GTOWN just frustrates the heck out of you with their style of play. Their stats don’t look overly impressive, but that’s because they slow play down so much. However, this squad is as efficient as it gets. They play tremendous defense,, and they’re money from the charity stripe. Jeff Green might just be the best college baller remaining in the tourney, and the big man Hibbert is such a beast underneath with his inside game and precision passing. I honestly don’t think Vandy stands a chance in this game. GTOWN paid the ‘Dores a visit way back in November of this year when each team hadn’t really broken a sweat yet. They rolled them by 16 in a game where both teams were still acclimating to new faces. Vandy only lost three games at home all season long, so that win was very impressive. I love the job HC Stallings has done with this team, but they’re really up against it tonight. Lay the chalk as the Hoyas move on to the Elite 8.

Bet on Georgetown -7.5…

The Niagara Purple Eagles had to go through a lot this season on their way to a MAAC Championship. A lack of leadership that resulted in a serious altercation with a Purple Eagle Baseball player that landed him in the hospital with serious injuries , and the subsequent suspension of 6 players , was the beginning of a possible rallying call that led this inexperienced but talented group, to come together as the season progressed behind coach Joe Mihalich. After winning their L/11 games of the season, they now feel disrespected for having to win one more time against a lower ranked Florida A&M program in the play in game in Dayton, Ohio today. With that said ,look for the Purple Eagles to come out here with all guns blazing in what I expect to be a statement game. Final notes & Trends: Niagara is 4-1 ATS L/5 in neutral court games . Projected score: Niagara 83 Florida A&M 67

Bet on Niagara -8.5…

Say what you will, but Drexel was jobbed by the NCAA Committee and should be playing in the Tourney. They had a number of solid wins this season. Wins at Creighton, St. Joe’s, Syracuse, and Villanova should have been enough, but they’ll just have to accept they got the same fate as Hofstra from a year ago. Now, many will expect that with all the snub talk that they will have forgotten about their game tonight with the Wolfpack. I completely beg to differ. HC Flint will have his men ready, and Mason, Mejia, and Elegar are going to have huge games against this NCST squad that’s played a ton of basketball the last five days against tough ACC competition. They’re worn down, and not even HC Lowe’s red blazer will save them from the fate their about to be handed. The Dragons were moineyburners ATS at home this year, but that’s because they had to lay some obscene amounts of chalk. That’s just not the case here tonight as the three hoops is a very manageable line for these ultra-motivated kids to overcome in this spot. Lay the chalk as the Dragons move on!!!!

Bet on Drexel -5.0…

We might be playing with fire in this spot considering the Wolverines are a much different club at home, but this Utah State Aggies club has really turned it on to close the season and I expect them to give it their all tonight. I know Michigan is a stellar 17-3 SU at home and they’ve had success with this bunch in the NIT before, but I’m not expecting the Wolves to take the court with much emotion for this one whatsoever. Big Blue is comprised of a number of Seniors that never got a chance to lace ‘em up in the Big Dance. Their bubble was bursted in the Big 10 tourney by Ohio State, and I’m looking for that disappointment to carry over into tonight’s contest. Aggies Jaycee Carroll has been playing like a man possessed of late, and there’s not a better stage (except for the NCAA Tourney) for him to reintroduce himself to the nation. Look for HC Stew Morrill to be the more motivated of coaches in this one as I believe Tommy Amaker’s days are numbered in Ann Arbor. A run in this years NIT won’t save his job, and I don’t believe the kids that battled for him the last four years care much anyway. The Aggies hang tight, and a possible outright win is definitely in the cards.

Bet on Utah State +8.0…

Loyola comes in with an impressive 10-1-1 mark ATS on the road this season. They’re also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss. Canisius has sturggled all year to cover the number at home and are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. If your looking for a good wager bet on Loyola giving the points. For the latest sports information click here.

The Washington State Cougars host PAC 10 nemesis Stanford tonight in
Pullman, and will be looking to avenge a 71-68 OT heartbreaker at Stanford earlier this season. Unfortunately, a victory will not come easy against a Cardinal program that has had a great deal of success under this venue winning 10 straight meetings SU here. Look for another hard fought affair.

Take the points and bet on Stanford

The Big East has been predominantly an UNDER conference this season, and DePaul has been one of the main reasons why.

The UNDER is now 6-1 in all Blue Demon conference games this year, as well as a very profitable 12-7 in all DePaul games this season. Moreover the last three UNDERS have come in games that produced combined total scores of 118, 109 and 97 points respectively! You just know that the Demons will try to slow the pace of this game to a crawl, especially playing on the road vs. one of the few Big East teams that can actually score.

Yes West Virginia is averaging 71.8 points per game, but that has more to do with their ability to hit three-point shots than it does with running the floor. Thus we expect the Mountaineers to have fewer possessions than usual vs. this plodding DePaul team here, and that could very well upset their rhythm from the perimeter. Do not forget also that the West Virginia defense is allowing just 49.1 points per game vs. Division I opponents here at home this season, limiting those clubs to a pathetic 35.3 percent shooting from the floor!

Click here for more information on how to bet on Depaul/West Virginia u125.