February 3, 2008
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, AZ
6:17 PM ET on FOX

The line for this game started extremely high. This is due to two reasons, the Patriots are very strong team and second the oddsmakers know that the “average Joe” bettor will be betting on the New England Patriots. This line should actually be New England -10 but was inflated by about 4 points at opening.

Yes, the Patriots are good, but don’t forget the Giants played them well in the Meadowlands and the Giants have been playing very well away from home. New England QB, Tom Brady, is also very questionable lately with his lower leg injury. The Giants will also be coming in with a ton of confidence after their NFC Championship win in the snowy confines of Lambeau field.

Don’t forget that the Patriots have not been blowing out opponents in the second half of the season like they were in the first. They might be 18-0, but they haven’t been destroying anybody.

The Patriots have been to 3 of the last 6 Super Bowls, and have won none of these by a larger margin than three points. I see the Patriots walking away as Super Bowl champs but I doubt they will cover the spread.

For Super Bowl Sunday February 3, 2008 the bet is on the NY GIANTS +14 !! Take as many points as you can get and run !!

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January 20, 2008
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
3:00 PM ET on CBS

After Saturday’s 31-20 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional title game, Tom Brady and team are headed to the AFC conference championship for the fifth time in seven seasons.

Brady set another individual record in his last game, throwing 26 completions in 28 attempts an NFL record 92.9 percent for regular-season and playoff games. He also threw three touchdown passes and racked up 262 yards, which may be bad news for Patriots fans considering New England is 0-5 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.But despite New England’s dominance on both sides of the ball, New England has dropped the cash in six of their last seven games, including last week’s playoff contest.

San Diego earned the right to play the Patriots by knocking off the Colts 28-24 Sunday at the RCA Dome as the double-digit underdogs. Despite having LaDainaian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers on the sideline, it was the Chargers eighth consecutive straight up win. They have managed to cover the spread in every game during the win streak. The Chargers are 43-20-2 ATS in their last 65 games overall.The Patriots beat the Chargers as the 3½–point favorites at home in Week 2, as Brady threw for 279 yards (25-of-31) and three touchdowns as New England reamed San Diego 38-14.

The over has cashed in the last four Patriots/Chargers games. New England has covered the spread in five of the last seven games between the two.This should be high-scoring game with the Patriots and Chargers playing for rights to appear in Super Bowl XLII.

The bet is on San Diego Chargers vs New England Patriots over 49 in this game!!

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January 20, 2008
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
6:30 PM ET on FOX

This Sunday the New York Giants are headed to cold Green Bay where they are set to face the Packers. It looks like it will be under 10 degrees on Sunday and forecasters predict that there will not be snow in this game. Eli Manning is playing the best ball of his career this season with 3336 yards for 23 touchdowns. This will be a very close encounter coming down to a field goal win. Eli has a lot on his mind since this will be a QB’s game, the new vs the old, but I am possitive he can handle the pressure! With team mates like Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw combining for 140 yard average, this game should be a sinch for Eli Manning and the NY Giants.
I say take the 7 points and bet on the New York Giants !!

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January 13, 2008
Texas Stadium, Irving, TX
4:30 PM ET on FOX

This sunday the NY Giants are set to play the Dallas Cowboys. Less than a moth ago ninety-nine percent of NFL fans would rather have bet the on the Cowboys passing and running game than the Giants offense. Tony Romo is forecasted for 35 more passing yards and is averaging 0.5 more TD passes. Eli Manning is also holding his own. The Giants combo of (RB) Brandon Jacobs and (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw are averaging 5 ypc for 115 yards. (RB) Marion Barber and (RB) Julius Jones who combine for 100 yards and just 4 ypc for the Cowboys rank lower than their Giants counter part. Terrell Owens playing in this game with be a big factor for the Cowboys win. Owens’ injury situation could have a big impact on the final outcome of this game and it appears that he will be handicapped to some extent for this matchup.  This game will definitely come down to the QBs and their passing game and the Cowboys are working with their star,(WR) Terrell Owens, at 50% strength. This will be a very close and well fought out battle but I think the NY Giants will pull it off with the extra 8 points in their favor.

This Sunday the bet is on the New York Giants +8 !!

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January 12, 2008
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
8:00 PM ET on CBS

Jacksonville’s performance last week is definitely reflected in this weekends line against the New England Patriots. Though the Jags fought and won a hard battle, they had lots of trouble moving the football. Their defense was not able to defend the pass. Hopefully the Jags will give up another 297 passing yards like the did last week for Big Roethlisberger. I think the two biggest obstacles standing in the way of 17-0 for New England will be the two headed monster running back duo, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.

The Pats are well rested after they earned a bye-week pass with the number one seed in the AFC. They don’t have any players recovering form injury so you can say that this is a pretty healthy team. With all players well rested and up to par they have been able to use the extra time for more practice and preparation. New England’s 36.8 ppg average this season set an NFL record. Their defense was almost as good allowing just 17.1 ppg average. Tom Brady and Randy Moss have had record breaking years and Wes Welker is a very nice addition to the team. Look for a very disciplined New England team this Sunday. I see a final score in this game as beings 35-17 New England.

This Saturday the bet is on the New England Patriots -13 !!

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We are down to the final 8 teams remaining of the NFL season as the Colts and the Chargers prepare to square off on Sunday in what is considered the easiest pick of the entire playoffs. The Colts have had a very good season fighting off injury after injury to still earn a first round Bye in the playoffs. Now they are being put to the test by the Chargers in the 2nd round of the NFL Playoffs. There are many reasons to jump on the Colts this Sunday. First off, Marvin Harrison is returning for the Colts at the WR position which has seen a lack of talent not hurt Peyton Manning too much. Manning threw 6 interceptions the last time these teams played a few weeks back in the regular season, and the Colts still should have won the game were it not for a Adam Vinatieri’s missed FG. The advantage of the offenses goes clearly to the Colts as Manning will look to set the record straight from the game a few weeks back.

The defenses seem to be fairly equal. The Chargers have had some play makers do just that in the last couple of weeks, and guys like Cromartie and Merriman have really hit their stride. They haven’t however seen a monster like this Indy offense who is prepared to put Harrison to good use because their is no offense in the entire NFL like a Colts offense with a healthy Marv. The Chargers may also be without their 2nd best offensive weapon in TE Antonio Gates. A good TE is the least talked about aspect that matters a lot to be a successful football team. Without Gates, Philip Rivers loses a big part of his game…it takes away that first check down option before he looks to dump off the ball to LT. Overall the difference is clear, the Colts are the defending Super Bowl Champions until someone states otherwise…the Chargers dont stand a chance this Sunday at Indianapolis.

This Sunday the bet is on the Indianapolis Colts -9 !!

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January 12, 2008
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
4:30 PM ET on FOX

This Saturday’s NFC Divisional Playoffs pick depends on one man playing or not, the master himself, Brett Farve. The Greenbay Packers official website states him as probable, hopefully he will start.

The Seattle Seahawks look to have Alexander and Hasslebeck back for Saturday(off serious injury), just another reason to take a shot with the Packers for Saturday. Last week the Seahawks lost to the 49er’s. I don’t believe that the Seahawks are anywhere near as good as the odds suggest, their defense has been ordinary and their 2 most potent attacking threats have both just returned from long term injuries. True the Seahawks have a great record at home, but I see this Seahawks team as struggling at the moment, defintely not 2008 superbowl material.

The Packers seem to be doing their best on the road this season. They are 2nd in the league on the road for passing and 14th in rushing. Farve and the Packers have won the last 3 matches against the Seahawks and are 4-1 against them in their last 5 overall, 4 of those games were at Green Bay though and the only loss came at Seattle. Farve is quite good at playing well against teams he regularly wins against and his record against Seattle is very, very good.

I really like Farve and he is playing with such enthusiasm that he could do the job this Saturday in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. He is a must start player for Saturday. Farve is a far better motivated player for the Packers than Hasslebeck is for the Seahawks.

This Saturday the bet is on the Green Bay Packers -8 !!

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This Wild Card Playoff match-up between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New York Giants looks fairly even statistically, but the Buccaneers appear to have the edge in this encounter.

From an emotional standpoint, I question the wisdom of the Giants’ decision to play their regulars and go all-out for the entire game in an attempt to end New England’s perfect season last week. That tough loss may actually work against them here, and the Giants probably would have been better served by resting their regulars, which is essentially what the Buccaneers have done the last two weeks.

From a physical standpoint, because of the differing approaches these teams took down the stretch, Tampa Bay is the fresher and healthier team entering this game. Granted, Jeremy Shockey was lost for the season a few weeks ago, but most of the other players on this week’s lengthy injury report would not be as nicked up if they had been held out last week.

Perhaps most importantly, in a game that is statistically close like this, the final outcome should be determined by who makes the fewer mistakes. Well, Eli Manning looked great against the Patriots, but he has always had a problem piecing together back-to-back good efforts, and the turnover-prone quarterback should face a ton of pressure here from a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing just 13.5 points and 165.0 passing yards per game at home.

Few quarterbacks manage a game as well as Jeff Garcia, who threw just four interceptions while tossing 13 touchdown passes this year. We look for Garcia to be the better quarterback this Sunday, and that should result in a Bucs victory.

This Sunday the bet is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 !!

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January 5, 2008
Qwest Field, Seattle, WA
4:30 PM ET on NBC

After winning four in a row, The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Seahawks have struggled to be productive every week this season with not much success. Redskins QB Todd Collins continues to play at a high level with his decision-making and ability to spread the ball around to an assortment of playmakers such as TE Chris Cooley and WRs Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El. I doubt Seattle’s 12th man will be of any factor for the Redskins’ QB!

John Marshall defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks must find a way to slow down the Redskins’ rushing attack and put pressure on Collins in the pocket. I feel that Redskins defensive coordinator Greg Williams already found the strategy to slow down QB Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks’ passing attack. The Seahawks are not very balanced on offense and are scrambling to find a way with RBs Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris. Special teams will play a huge part in the decision of this game but overall I think the bet is on the Washington Redskins on the money line!!

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December 16, 2007
Dolphin Stadium, Miami, FL
1:00 PM ET

The (4-9) Baltimore Ravens  and the (0-13) Miami Dolphins enter this South Florida contest both witha a desperate need of wins. Both these teams have had problems scoring this season. The Ravens are averaging just 17.4 points per game, and a lowly 12.8 points on the road. The Dolphins have averaged just 16.4 points per game on the season, and 17.6 points for home games. Miami has gone under in 11 of their last 12 home games against AFC North Division foes , with the average combined score of those tilts summing up an average of 26.6 points per game. Look for a hard fought low scoring affair this Sunday afternoon at Dolphin Stadium. 

This Sunday Afternoon the bet is on the Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins UNDER 37.5…

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