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October 12th, 2006

Vickers Under the Gun

It’s pretty rare that a driver outside of the Chase for the Cup gets to steal the spotlight in October. But Brian Vickers would probably prefer to lay low this week.

Vickers has drawn plenty of criticism for his actions at last week’s UAW Ford 500 at the famed Talladega Superspeedway. Running in third place behind Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson, Vickers accidentally bumped into Johnson - his Hendrick Motorsports teammate - on the last lap of the race. That caused Johnson to careen into Earnhardt; both men spun out, and Vickers cruised to victory.

With Vickers already considered persona non grata in the Hendrick garage (he’s moving to Team Red Bull next season), last week’s events made the North Carolina native even more of a pariah. He’ll be getting a beefed-up security escort this Saturday night at Lowe’s Motor Speedway in his home state for the Bank of America 500. Track officials arranged the extra security after a deluge of irate phone calls from NASCAR fans.

Johnson can sympathize with the fans. His chances at winning his first Nextel Cup took a hit when he had to settle for a 24th-place finish at Talladega; Johnson is now 156 points behind Chase leader Jeff Burton with six races left to go in the season. Perhaps he can channel his anger this week at Lowe’s, one of his favorite tracks on the NASCAR circuit. Johnson is favored at +450 to win Saturday night’s race. Vickers is well down the odds list at +4000.

Johnson is the two-time defending winner of this event. Not only that, he’s won five of his last seven appearances in Charlotte, and has finished no worse than seventh since crashing out of his 2001 debut at Lowe’s. But Johnson, believe it or not, isn’t technically the best of the best on this track - that honor goes to Carl Edwards (+1400). In three career races at Lowe’s, Edwards has placed third twice and 10th once, for an average result of 5.33 compared to 6.2 for Johnson. Sometimes, the statistics do lie.

Television coverage on NBC gets underway at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

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October 7th, 2006

Formula 1 - Japanese Grand Prix

All eyes will be on two racers on Sunday when Formula 1 drivers take to the track at the Suzuka Circuit in Japan.

Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso are tied atop the drivers standings with 116 points apiece with only two races to go. Schumacher and Alonso finished one-two in China last week, which allowed Schumacher to close a two-point gap. The win was Schumacher’s second in a row and fifth in his last seven races. Alonso has been on a very long cold streak since winning four races in a row back in May and June. Alonso hasn’t seen the checkered flag since winning the Canadian Grand Prix back in late June. Alonso has had three second-place finishes over that span, but he also was forced to retire on two occasions.

The battle between Schumacher and Alonso isn’t the only one F1 fans will be keeping an eye on this weekend. Schumacher’s Ferrari team and Alonso’s Renault team are neck and neck at the top of the constructors championship. Heading into Japan, Renault sits only one point ahead of Ferrari. Out of 16 races so far this season Renault has won seven of them, while Ferrari has eight wins. Of course Alonso has six of them and Schumacher has seven. Felipe Massa added another win for Ferrari, while Giancarlo Fisichella won the second race of the season for Renault.

If history plays a part this weekend Schumacher should have a pretty big edge over Alonso. Schumacher has won a record six times at Suzuka, with his last win coming in 2004. Alonso’s best finish at Suzuka was last year when he finished third behind Kimi Raikkonen and Fisichella.

The oddsmakers have only Schumacher and Alonso in sight at Suzuka, with Raikkonen barely coming into view. Schumacher comes in as a -120 favorite, while Alonso is a +175 underdog. Raikkonen, who may have won in Japan last year but is still looking for his first victory this season, is listed at +800.

After they finish up in Japan, Formula 1 heads to Brazil for the final race of the season. Whichever racer, Schumacher or Alonso, finishes first this weekend will have a big advantage in the race to the championship in Brazil. No matter what happens, you can be assured Schumacher’s final race of his F1 career next week will be memorable.
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October 5th, 2006

UAW-Ford 500 - Talladega Superspeedway

The Chase for the Nextel Cup cruises into the Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, after coasting out of Kansas a week ago.

We say they coasted out of Kansas because a few drivers had no choice after running out of gas in the Banquet 400. Tony Stewart was running of fumes before his gas tank ran completely dry, but it didn’t matter as he simply dropped into neutral and rolled over the finish line. When you have a 17-second lead over the rest of the field you can do that.

The Chasers weren’t able to escape Kansas without their own gasoline troubles. Jimmie Johnson was leading the race before hitting the pits for a quick shot of fuel with only four laps to go. Johnson was penalized for speeding in the pit area and ended up finishing 14th. Johnson’s chances at the championship were slim to none heading into the race, and they’re all but gone now.

The leader heading into Kansas is still the leader heading into Talladega. Jeff Burton finished fifth at Kansas and holds a 69-point lead on Denny Hamlin, who was 18th last week.

Mark Martin is only 70 points back and has a shot at the checkered flag at Talladega considering he has won there twice before in his career. Always the pessimist, Martin has declared he expects to wreck this weekend.

The Chaser that lost the most at Kansas was Jeff Gordon. When the race began last week, Gordon was second in the driver’s standings. After being forced out of the race with car trouble with 29 laps to go, Gordon dropped down to sixth in the standings. If Gordon hopes to make a move back up the standings, Talladega looks like the place to do it. In his career, Gordon has four career victories at the Superspeedway.

The only driver with more success at Talladega than Gordon is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Junior’s chances at a championship are quickly slipping away. Heading into the UAW-Ford 500, Earnhardt Jr. sits 123 points behind Burton. Junior has five career victories at Talladega, so don’t count him out quite yet.

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September 29th, 2006

Formula 1 - Chinese Grand Prix

The Formula 1 season motors into China this weekend with only three races remaining before the drivers champion will be crowned.

The championship is a race between two drivers for the title with Fernando Alonso holding a razor-thin two-point lead over Michael Schumacher. Out of the 15 races run already this season, either Alonso or Schumacher has won 12 of them. Alonso and Schumacher are the drivers that still have a shot at the championship with the closest follower being Felipe Massa, who is a distant 46 points back of Alonso.

Schumacher closed the gap to two points in Italy earlier this month with a win in the Italian Grand Prix, his sixth win of the season. Alonso was forced to retire with engine trouble and did not finish the race. Alonso has not won since crossing the finish line first in the Canadian Grand Prix back in June. Schumacher has gone on to win four races during that span.

The Chinese Grand Prix is still a relatively new race on the Formula 1 schedule, with the first race ever run at the Shanghai International Circuit back in 2004. Last season the race was won by Alonso, with Giancarlo Fisichella and Kimi Raikkonen also finishing on the podium. Rubens Barrichella won the inaugural race back in 2004, with Jenson Button and Raikkonen also grabbing the podium.

If those two races have any bearing on this weekend’s race, then Alonso appears to have the advantage over Schumacher despite his recent troubles. The Spaniard won the race last season and just missed the podium by finishing fourth in 2004. Schumacher’s best finish at Shanghai was a sixth-place finish in 2004. He finished well back of the field in 12th place last year.

Like the drivers standings, the odds for the race begin and end with Schumacher and Alonso. Having outraced Alonso for the past three months, Schumacher is the favorite in China at -175. Alonso comes in at +330. The only other drivers to receive odds lower than +1000 were Raikkonen at +650 and Schumacher’s Ferrari teammate Felipe Massa at +750.

A win by Schumacher on Sunday would guarantee the former World Champion at least a tie with Alonso for first place in the drivers standings. That would only happen though, if Schumacher finished first and Alonso placed second, which has happened three times already this season.

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September 28th, 2006

Kenseth favored in Kansas

He may be in third place in the NASCAR Nextel Cup drivers’ standings, but he’s No. 1 with a bullet on the odds list.

Matt Kenseth is the +700 favorite to win this Sunday’s Banquet 400 at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City - the one in the Sunflower State, that is. Handicappers have short memories, and it was just last month that Kenseth won back-to-back races on the way to taking first place in the standings leading into the Chase for the Cup. He’s now just 18 points back of current leader Jeff Burton.

Kenseth has recent history on his side at Kansas. He finished fifth last year at this 1.5-mile tri-oval, having started from the pole. And if he hadn’t run out of gas on the last lap of last week’s MBNA NASCAR RacePoints 400 at Dover International Speedway, Kenseth would probably be on top of the standings right now. He managed a 10th-place finish instead to stay within close range of Burton.

The man in second place has even more reason to look forward to Kansas. Jeff Gordon is second on the odds list, ties with Kasey Kahne at +800, and his track record at Kansas is stellar: two victories and an average result of sixth since the inaugural race in 2001. You can call it a comeback if you want; Gordon is a four-time Cup winner and is just six points behind Burton after missing last year’s Chase.

But the buzz on the Cup circuit is still with the folks at Richard Childress Racing. The last three races have fallen into the RCR camp - Burton took the checkered flag last week at Dover, while Kevin Harvick won the two previous events. RCR is still under scrutiny after the SPEED Network report that suggested the team used modified tire rims that fell under a gray area of NASCAR’s rules.

If RCR is still operating with something of an advantage, then Harvick (+900) and Burton (+1400) have to be considered worth a look for Kansas. However, between the two, only Harvick has managed a Top-10 result on this track, and that happened just once in 2003, when he finished sixth.

The action gets underway Sunday at 2:10 p.m. Eastern under expected sunny skies.
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September 21st, 2006

Kenseth Favored Over Harvick

Sometimes, you can’t win for losing.

Kevin Harvick just can’t seem to get any respect - not even after his victory at last week’s Sylvania 300 in Loudon. That’s two wins in a row for Harvick and three out of six; he now sits atop the Chase for the Nextel Cup standings. But Harvick is not the top man on the odds list for this week’s event, the MBNA RacePoints 400 at Dover International Speedway. That would be Matt Kenseth at +600. Harvick is pegged at +800 alongside non-Chaser Tony Stewart.

The 2006 Cup season has been a struggle at times for Harvick. He failed to pilot his No. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevy into the Top 10 in each of his first four points events, taking the lead for a grand total of one lap during that span. But business picked up substantially for Harvick after finishing second at the Food City 500. Now the pride of Bakersfield is the hottest driver on the circuit; nobody has collected more points over the past 10 Cup races. Harvick is also in excellent position to win the Busch Series and become the first driver in nearly 60 years to win NASCAR’s top two divisions.

Yet it’s Kenseth who will carry the shortest odds into Dover. He would be in first place right now if pre-Chase rules were still in effect, and it was Kenseth who won the first race of the season at Dover, the Neighborhood Excellence 400 (also sponsored by MBNA). Harvick placed third at that event behind Kenseth’s Roush Racing teammate, Jamie McMurray (+2100 this week).

That was the best finish at Dover for all three drivers in their respective Cup careers. It could also be a harbinger of this Sunday’s results. The Dover track has produced seven season sweeps since 1988, including Stewart in 2000, Jimmie Johnson in 2002 and Ryan Newman in 2003. A car that performs well at Dover in June is likely to repeat that success in September; based on that logic, McMurray could be a tasty long shot. In an otherwise forgettable first year with Roush Racing, McMurray led June’s race for 95 laps, more than any other driver. But if he found himself out front this week, would he ease off the pedal and allow Kenseth to strengthen his Chase position?

The action gets underway at 1:10 p.m. Eastern Time.

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September 14th, 2006

Kyle Busch Favored at Loudon

The Chase is on, and The Shrub has a leg up on the competition.

Kyle Busch is the favorite at +650 to win the first race in NASCAR’s Chase for the Cup, this Sunday’s Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway in Loudon. Since joining the Nextel Cup circuit in 2004, the younger of the Busch brothers has raced at Loudon three times, most recently taking the checkered flag at the Lenox Industrial Tools 300 in July. Sweeping the season series would vault Busch up the drivers’ standings - he’s currently in fourth place, but just 15 points behind leader Matt Kenseth after the pre-Chase points adjustment.

Kenseth is next on the odds list at +800 after winning two of his last four races to seize the top spot in the standings from Jimmie Johnson (+1200). These short odds may not be warranted. Kenseth has yet to win at Loudon in 13 attempts; however, what he has done is crank out five Top-4 results and three other Top-10 finishes on the mile-long track. Many NASCAR observers believe Kenseth will be just as consistent during the Chase and eventually pull away from the pack.

Joining Kenseth at +800 is Kevin Harvick, arguably the driver with the most momentum on the Cup circuit after last week’s big win at the Chevy Rock & Roll 400. Like Kenseth, Harvick has never won at Loudon, but he has been among the leaders, placing no worse than 13th in six of his last seven visits. That includes a fifth-place result at July’s event. Harvick has also accumulated more points over the past 10 Cup races than anyone else.

The non-Chase driver with the shortest odds this Sunday is the soon-to-be former Cup champion Tony Stewart at +1000. He barely missed the Chase after having to start from 40th spot on the grid last week in Richmond, courtesy of an accident during the practice session that knocked his primary car out of qualifying. Stewart was outstanding at Loudon last year, finishing first and second for Joe Gibbs Racing, but fell to 37th in July’s race after starting fifth on the grid. Stewart will be looking to atone for that result this week.

Race time is 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time, with TNT on hand for the television coverage. The folks from SPEED will broadcast the qualifying and final practice runs.

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September 7th, 2006

No rest for the Chasers

Most of us working stiffs got to take Monday off for Labor Day. The teams on NASCAR’s Nextel Cup circuit didn’t have the same luxury.

There wasn’t much time for Kasey Kahne to savor his victory Sunday night at the Sony HD 500 in Fontana, Calif. His Evernham Racing team was one of several to take the red-eye Monday, en route to Saturday’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway in Virginia. Given the time pressure and the relatively small ¾-mile track at Richmond, there is an increased likelihood of chaos as qualifying for the Chase for the Cup draws to a close.

Kahne’s victory at California Speedway pulled him to within 30 points of that last qualifying spot. He also leads all Cup drivers with five wins this season, and is near the top of the odds list this week at +900 to make it six. Jeff Burton (+2000) is currently in 10th place, but he’s not the only driver in danger of falling out of Chase position. The only two drivers who have clinched are Matt Kenseth (+900) and Jimmie Johnson (+1200).

Most of the other men in the Top 10 will be racing conservatively this Sunday, more concerned with avoiding a race-ending collision than taking the checkered flag. Those closer to Kahne in the standings will be more aggressive. Mark Martin (+2000) is only two points in front of Burton, while defending Cup champion Tony Stewart (+800) is another 13 points ahead of Martin. These four drivers are essentially fighting for three spots in the Chase.

Stewart earns co-favorite honors this week with Dale Earnhardt Jr. Each man has won three Cup races at Richmond. Stewart has been the more consistent of the two with four Top-7 results in his last five appearances. Earnhardt, however, won the May event at this track, the hotly contested Crown Royal 400.

Ironically, Little E’s established skills on superspeedways come into play at Richmond. Although the track is short, the turns are a manageable 14 degrees. Lap times approaching 110 mph are the norm - when cars aren’t smashing into one another. No wonder fans love Richmond so much.

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